Hun Sen, champion of democracy

Prime Minister Hun Sen is turning up the heat on his Thai counterpart.

The spat between Bangkok and Phnom Penh was in danger of turning uglier yesterday as Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen talked of banning Thai goods if Bangkok closes the border between the two countries.

[...]

On Cambodian TV on Sunday night, he further needled Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, challenging him to call a snap election and saying that the pro-Thaksin opposition party, Puea Thai, would win it.

Hun Sen, who has been in power for close to 30 years, also said that if Thailand closed the border between the two countries, Cambodia would ban all Thai products.

The PM’s statement significantly turns up the heat on the Thai junta. It also strongly suggests that Thaksin’s current visit to Cambodia is not merely some political stunt designed to enrage the Thai establishment — although it is certainly that — but part of a larger strategy aimed at regime change in Thailand. It’s hard to underestimate the stakes in such a gamble. The danger of war, say some analysts, has never been greater.

Nationalist groups in Thailand, especially the royalist “Yellow Shirts” who blockaded Bangkok’s airports last year, have been urging the new government to take a hard line.

“How bad it gets depends entirely on whether Abhisit can keep his cool and resist pressure from those who are intent on escalation of this conflict,” said Michael Montesano, a visiting research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

“But if he keeps making announcements of the kind he has made in the past few days then things could get much, much worse.”